CloudHack Model Intelligence

March Madness Prediction Engine

Explore calibrated matchup probabilities, championship odds, upset alerts, and interactive bracket simulations generated from our stacked ensemble model.

Validation Accuracy
82.4%
Brier Score
0.127
Simulations
100,000
Model Features
19

Championship Leaderboard

Swipe horizontally to see all columns.

Ranki
Position after sorting teams by Championship Title % (highest to lowest).
Teami
Program name. Click a row to sync team selection with the drilldown section.
Seedi
Tournament seed number (lower is better). Derived from official 2026 bracket seeding.
Title %i
Probability of winning the championship from the model simulation output: ChampProb x 100.
Oddsi
American odds converted from Title % implied probability. Favorite: negative odds; underdog: positive odds.
Final 4i
Probability of reaching the Final Four (Round R5) from advancement probabilities.
AdjOi
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: estimated points scored per 100 possessions, opponent-adjusted.
AdjDi
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: estimated points allowed per 100 possessions, opponent-adjusted. Lower is better.
AdjEMi
Adjusted Efficiency Margin = AdjO - AdjD. Positive values indicate stronger two-way profile.
Eloi
Elo team rating from game outcomes and margin context; higher indicates stronger expected win probability.
Tempoi
Adjusted pace estimate (possessions pace context). Higher values indicate faster expected game speed.
R1 Riski
Round 1 upset risk = 100 - Round 1 win probability from matchup projections.

Bracket Simulator

Full bracket view (4 regions + Final Four). Click winners to play out your path.

Picks Made0/ 63
Upsets Picked0
ChampionDuke
Probabilities update dynamically as you make picks
East
Round 1
Round 2
Sweet 16
Elite 8
R1W1
R1W2
R1W3
R1W4
R1W5
R1W6
R1W7
R1W8
R2W1
R2W2
R2W3
R2W4
R3W1
R3W2
R4W1
West
Round 1
Round 2
Sweet 16
Elite 8
R1X1
R1X2
R1X3
R1X4
R1X5
R1X6
R1X7
R1X8
R2X1
R2X2
R2X3
R2X4
R3X1
R3X2
R4X1
Final Four
National Semifinals / Championship
Semifinal 1
Semifinal 2
Championship
Champion
Duke
South
Round 1
Round 2
Sweet 16
Elite 8
R1Y1
R1Y2
R1Y3
R1Y4
R1Y5
R1Y6
R1Y7
R1Y8
R2Y1
R2Y2
R2Y3
R2Y4
R3Y1
R3Y2
R4Y1
Midwest
Round 1
Round 2
Sweet 16
Elite 8
R1Z1
R1Z2
R1Z3
R1Z4
R1Z5
R1Z6
R1Z7
R1Z8
R2Z1
R2Z2
R2Z3
R2Z4
R3Z1
R3Z2
R4Z1

Game Explorer

67 matchups

Swipe horizontally to view all columns.

SlotRoundStrongWeakSplitUpset %Rating
R1Z8Round of 64
Z08Villanova
Z09Utah St
50.3 / 49.7
49.7%COIN FLIP
R1X6Round of 64
X06North Carolina
X11VCU
51.4 / 48.6
48.6%COIN FLIP
R4X1Elite 8
X01Florida
X02Houston
46.1 / 53.9
46.1%COIN FLIP
R2Z4Round of 32
Z04Arkansas
Z05Wisconsin
56.5 / 43.5
43.5%UPSET ALERT
R2Y4Round of 32
Y04Alabama
Y05Texas Tech
57.3 / 42.7
42.7%UPSET ALERT
R4Z1Elite 8
Z01Arizona
Z02Purdue
38.6 / 61.4
38.6%UPSET ALERT
R6CHChampionship
W01Duke
Y01Michigan
64.7 / 35.3
35.3%UPSET ALERT
R2Y3Round of 32
Y03Virginia
Y06Tennessee
34.2 / 65.8
34.2%Competitive
R1Y8Round of 64
Y08Georgia
Y09St Louis
68.8 / 31.2
31.2%Competitive
R1Z6Round of 64
Z06BYU
Z11aNC State
69.5 / 30.5
30.5%Competitive
R2W3Round of 32
W03Michigan St
W06Louisville
69.5 / 30.5
30.5%Competitive
R1X7Round of 64
X07St Mary's CA
X10Texas A&M
72.4 / 27.6
27.6%Likely
R3Z2Sweet 16
Z02Purdue
Z03Gonzaga
72.5 / 27.5
27.5%Likely
R2X4Round of 32
X04Nebraska
X05Vanderbilt
27.0 / 73.0
27.0%Likely
Y11Play-In
Y11aMiami OH
Y11bSMU
26.1 / 73.9
26.1%Likely
R5YZFinal Four
Y01Michigan
Z02Purdue
75.2 / 24.8
24.8%Likely
R1X8Round of 64
X08Clemson
X09Iowa
79.8 / 20.2
20.2%Likely
R5WXFinal Four
W01Duke
X02Houston
79.9 / 20.1
20.1%Likely
R1Z7Round of 64
Z07Miami FL
Z10Missouri
19.7 / 80.3
19.7%Likely
R1Y6Round of 64
Y06Tennessee
Y11bSMU
81.2 / 18.8
18.8%Likely
R3W1Sweet 16
W01Duke
W05St John's
81.7 / 18.3
18.3%Likely
R2Y2Round of 32
Y02Iowa St
Y10Santa Clara
82.0 / 18.0
18.0%Likely
R3W2Sweet 16
W02Connecticut
W03Michigan St
83.4 / 16.6
16.6%Likely
R1W8Round of 64
W08Ohio St
W09TCU
84.3 / 15.7
15.7%Likely
R3X2Sweet 16
X02Houston
X03Illinois
84.3 / 15.7
15.7%Likely
R4W1Elite 8
W01Duke
W02Connecticut
85.0 / 15.0
15.0%Likely
Y16Play-In
Y16aHoward
Y16bUMBC
14.8 / 85.2
14.8%Likely
R3Z1Sweet 16
Z01Arizona
Z04Arkansas
85.5 / 14.5
14.5%Likely
R4Y1Elite 8
Y01Michigan
Y02Iowa St
85.5 / 14.5
14.5%Likely
R2Z1Round of 32
Z01Arizona
Z08Villanova
85.8 / 14.2
14.2%Likely
R1W7Round of 64
W07UCLA
W10UCF
85.9 / 14.1
14.1%Likely
Z11Play-In
Z11aNC State
Z11bTexas
86.4 / 13.6
13.6%Likely
R3X1Sweet 16
X01Florida
X05Vanderbilt
87.1 / 12.9
12.9%Likely
R1W6Round of 64
W06Louisville
W11South Florida
88.1 / 11.9
11.9%Likely
R1Y5Round of 64
Y05Texas Tech
Y12Akron
89.3 / 10.7
10.7%Likely
R2Z3Round of 32
Z03Gonzaga
Z06BYU
89.8 / 10.2
10.2%Likely
R1Y7Round of 64
Y07Kentucky
Y10Santa Clara
9.7 / 90.3
9.7%Likely
R1X2Round of 64
X02Houston
X15Idaho
90.6 / 9.4
9.4%Likely
R2X3Round of 32
X03Illinois
X06North Carolina
90.8 / 9.2
9.2%Likely
R2W2Round of 32
W02Connecticut
W07UCLA
91.1 / 8.9
8.9%Likely
R1W3Round of 64
W03Michigan St
W14N Dakota St
91.2 / 8.8
8.8%Likely
R3Y2Sweet 16
Y02Iowa St
Y06Tennessee
91.3 / 8.7
8.7%Likely
R1W4Round of 64
W04Kansas
W13Cal Baptist
91.6 / 8.4
8.4%Likely
R2X1Round of 32
X01Florida
X08Clemson
92.3 / 7.7
7.7%Likely
R1Z1Round of 64
Z01Arizona
Z16LIU Brooklyn
92.4 / 7.6
7.6%Likely
R1Z3Round of 64
Z03Gonzaga
Z14Kennesaw
92.8 / 7.2
7.2%Likely
X16Play-In
X16aLehigh
X16bPrairie View
93.0 / 7.0
7.0%Likely
R3Y1Sweet 16
Y01Michigan
Y04Alabama
93.5 / 6.5
6.5%Likely
R1W1Round of 64
W01Duke
W16Siena
93.7 / 6.3
6.3%Likely
R1Z2Round of 64
Z02Purdue
Z15Queens NC
93.7 / 6.3
6.3%Likely
R2W4Round of 32
W04Kansas
W05St John's
6.3 / 93.7
6.3%Likely
R2Z2Round of 32
Z02Purdue
Z10Missouri
93.7 / 6.3
6.3%Likely
R1X3Round of 64
X03Illinois
X14Penn
94.2 / 5.8
5.8%Likely
R1Z5Round of 64
Z05Wisconsin
Z12High Point
94.2 / 5.8
5.8%Likely
R2W1Round of 32
W01Duke
W08Ohio St
94.2 / 5.8
5.8%Likely
R2X2Round of 32
X02Houston
X07St Mary's CA
94.2 / 5.8
5.8%Likely
R1Y3Round of 64
Y03Virginia
Y14Wright St
94.3 / 5.7
5.7%Likely
R1X1Round of 64
X01Florida
X16aLehigh
94.4 / 5.6
5.6%Likely
R1X4Round of 64
X04Nebraska
X13Troy
94.5 / 5.5
5.5%Likely
R1W5Round of 64
W05St John's
W12Northern Iowa
94.6 / 5.4
5.4%Likely
R1Y2Round of 64
Y02Iowa St
Y15Tennessee St
94.6 / 5.4
5.4%Likely
R1W2Round of 64
W02Connecticut
W15Furman
94.7 / 5.3
5.3%Likely
R1Y4Round of 64
Y04Alabama
Y13Hofstra
94.8 / 5.2
5.2%Likely
R1X5Round of 64
X05Vanderbilt
X12McNeese St
95.0 / 5.0
5.0%Likely
R2Y1Round of 32
Y01Michigan
Y08Georgia
95.0 / 5.0
5.0%Likely
R1Y1Round of 64
Y01Michigan
Y16bUMBC
95.1 / 4.9
4.9%Likely
R1Z4Round of 64
Z04Arkansas
Z13Hawaii
95.1 / 4.9
4.9%Likely

Team Drilldown

Explore a team’s round-by-round advancement profile

Championship Probability

0.00%

Akron advancement funnel

Model Performance

Leave-one-tournament-out cross-validation across historical tournaments

Model vs Model

Accuracy by Round